As the election season approaches, examining the political odds has become a crucial part of understanding the race. Pollsters and analysts are working around the clock, assessing the current political landscape and evaluating the candidates vying for the title of the next US President. From seasoned politicians to fresh faces on the political scene, each potential nominee’s policies and popularity are being scrutinized. The political odds offer insight into who could be leading the pack and who faces an uphill battle. It’s not just about public opinion; strategic endorsements, fundraising capabilities, and debate performances will all shape these odds in the weeks and months to come. Voters and enthusiasts alike are eagerly watching the shift in political odds, trying to anticipate who will emerge victorious in this high-stakes political contest.
As things currently stand in the betting, the Republican party (-114) is on pace for a White House return, with ex-POTUS Donald Trump leading the charge.
The Democratic party in the meantime is coalescing behind incumbent Joe Biden, putting them on course for a 2020 rematch against Trump. However, the Democrats are tipped as the +102 bet to remain in power next year.
Elsewhere, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. represents the independent bid in next year’s elections. But with odds of +1800 to win the presidential race, he’s the quintessential longshot bet to upset the apple cart.
Below, we look at all the main declared candidates and some of the undeclared candidates across the political aisle and weigh in on the politics odds powered by BUSR sportsbook.
US Presidential Election – Winning Party and Political Odds
· Republican Party -114
· Democratic Party +102
· Independent +1800
An In depth Analysis of Potential Political Odds of the Candidates for Next US Presidential Election
Democratic Nominees and Odds
Joe Biden -300
Predictably, the Democratic party is coalescing behind president Biden, in keeping with a key trend in US politics that puts stock in the power of incumbency. US political history shows that beating an incumbent in a general election is tough to accomplish. Thus, both major parties tend to renominate incumbents when they are eligible for reelection in order to capitalize on that trend.
Looking ahead to 2024, Biden is the runaway favorite to win the Democratic nomination in the absence of a legitimate challenger. He is tipped at -300 per the politics odds, giving him a 75% implied probability of winning.
However, in the broad spectrum of the presidential race, Biden is tipped as the second favorite after Trump. This politics betting outlook is underscored by early polls that show Biden trailing Trump, especially in key swing states that could decide the general election.
Biden is the oldest sitting president in the history of American politics. Should he win the general election, he will be a few weeks removed from his 82nd birthday.
Gavin Newsom +340
California governor Gavin Newsom hasn’t declared his intention to run against Biden in the Democratic primary. In fact, he insists he does not intend to run at all and will support Biden instead.
Nevertheless, bookmakers view him as a potential spoiler candidate and the primary option for the Democratic party should Biden be unable to run for any reason or the party takes the unprecedented decision to change course altogether.
Michelle Obama +1000
Former First Lady Michelle Obama is the vogue pick among the spoiler candidates, though she hasn’t thrown her cap into the race. Nor will she, Democrats. In numerous interviews, Ms. Obama’s response was a resounding no to the question: Will you ever run for president?
Kamala Harris +1400
Kamala Harris became the first female vice president after joining Biden on the Democratic ticket in 2020. So far, she is running alongside Biden in 2024, but she has also made it known in a recent interview with CBS’ s Face the Nation that she is prepared to serve as the country’s president “if necessary.”
Immediately after Biden and Harris’ victory in 2020, markets went to press with early 2024 US Election odds in which Harris emerged as the favorite over Biden. However, that was then. A lot has changed since then and the betting outlook tells a different story today.
Hillary Clinton +4000
Hillary Clinton won the party’s nomination in 2016 but lost to Trump in the general election. She has not declared for 2024. Moreover, given her long odds of +4000 to secure the Democratic nomination, it is highly unlikely that she will run again.
Republican Nominee and Odds
Donald Trump -625
Ex-president Trump has the GOP nomination in the bag per the politics odds. He is pegged as the whopping -625 favorite to win the primary race, giving him an 86.2% implied probability of winning, and he’s the bookmakers’ favorite to win at -125 in a hypothetical rematch against Biden next year.
Short of a seismic shift on the political landscape, Trump is most likely going to lead the Republicans into the 2024 US Elections. Trump’s odds have been steadily improving over the course of the year – an outlook at the sportsbook exchange that is echoed by several surveys from respected national pollsters.
In particular, a recent Times/Sienna poll showed Trump leading Biden in five key battleground states: North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona. The only state that showed Biden with a lead over Trump was Wisconsin.
Nikki Haley +550
Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is arguably the biggest mover in the Republican nominee and US president markets, respectively. She’s the second favorite for the GOP nod, albeit at +550 odds she is accorded with a 15.4% shot to unseat the former POTUS. In the presidential race, she is a 10-1 bet, which gives her an implied probability of 9.1% to become the first female president in US history.
Ron DeSantis +600
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was the GOP rising star and the candidate that was supposed to give Trump a run for his money per the punditocracy. Indeed, DeSantis was at one point earlier this year favored by many sports betting sites to become the 47th president of the United States.
Since announcing his presidential campaign in May, however, things haven’t gone to plan for the 45-year-old statesman. Recent polls have shown DeSantis losing ground across the board, both nationally and at the state level.
A new national poll conducted by Emerson College recorded a new low for the Florida governor of just 6.7% support. By contrast, Trump led with 64% while Haley registered with 14% support. The only consolation for DeSantis is that he remained ahead of Vivek Ramaswamy and Christ Christie, both tied on 4% support.
Vivek Ramaswamy +2500
Political debutant and the youngest-ever Republican presidential candidate Ramaswamy is punching above his weight class. Ramaswamy entered the race as a longshot bet with +10000 odds. Today, he’s priced as a modest contender on +2500 odds, which yields a 3.8% shot of winning the GOP primary.
Chris Christie +10000
Former federal prosecutor Chris Christie has been Trump’s biggest critic on the unofficial Republican circuit. He’s made no secret of his ambition to save the party from Trump. But things aren’t working out for him on that score, and now, with 100-to-1 odds, his campaign has barely a 1% shot of success. That is telling.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Launches Independent Bid
Environmental attorney and activist Robert F. Kennedy is the epitome of a spoiler candidate, breaking rank with the Democratic party to run as an independent candidate with an aim of causing a major upset in 2024.
In reality, Kennedy has little chance of beating either Trump or Biden to the White House. However, he has positioned himself favorably with voters on either side of the political aisle and his message appears to be resonating with them. That could spell trouble for both candidates, in particular if he syphons votes away from them in the general elections. In a Quinnipiac University poll released last month, Kennedy Jr. garnered a healthy 22% support in a hypothetical three-way battle against Trump and Biden.
