NBA Playoffs Odds: Game 7 Nuggets vs Timberwolves
The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets face off Sunday in Game 7 of the Western Conference Second Round of the NBA Playoffs at Ball Arena. Here’s a Timberwolves vs. Nuggets prediction.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves are aiming for their first conference finals since the 2003-04 season. They are 4-1 on the road in these playoffs, averaging 109.4 points on 48% shooting while allowing 100.6 points on 46.2% shooting. Key players include Anthony Edwards (30.2 points, 6 rebounds) and Karl-Anthony Towns (18.4 points, 2.9 assists). Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley also contribute significantly. The Timberwolves shot 36.4% from beyond the arc and 78.7% from the free throw line while allowing 37.1% shooting from deep and grabbing 43.8 rebounds per game.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets aim for their third conference finals in five years, holding a 4-2 home record in these playoffs. They average 103.3 points on 46.1% shooting and allow 104.8 points on 48.7% shooting. Nikola Jokic (28.2 points, 12.9 rebounds) and Jamal Murray (19.3 points, 4.5 rebounds) lead the team, with Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon playing crucial roles. The Nuggets shot 34.1% from three and 82.6% from the free throw line, allowing 33.5% shooting from deep and grabbing 42.4 rebounds per game.
Injury Report
Injury reports show the Timberwolves without Jaylen Clark and the Nuggets without Vlatko Cancar. Jamal Murray is questionable with an elbow injury.
Key Stats You Should Know
– The Timberwolves have won 4 of their last 5 as underdogs (A +164 money line makes this game even more appealing)
– The Nuggets have lost 3 of their last 4 Western Conference Semifinal games as home favorites against Northwest Division opponents.
– The Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 8 games as favorites against Northwest Division opponents following a loss.
– The Timberwolves have covered the spread in their last 5 playoff games as underdogs against Western Conference opponents following a win. Considering the Timberwolves NBA Playoffs odds as the underdog, this doesn’t make me especially enthusiastic about betting on Denver. The spread is just +5 points.
– Jamal Murray ranks 10th in 3P% (42.5%).
– Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ranks 16th in steals per game (1.3).
– Anthony Edwards ranks 3rd in fast break points (310).
– Karl-Anthony Towns ranks 2nd among centers for three-pointers made per game (2.2).
– Nuggets rank 1st in Q4 win percentage (56.1%), which might mean a strong final push for the game, consider that for spread betting.
– Nuggets rank 2nd in opponent three-point field goals made per game (11.2).
– Timberwolves rank 1st in opponent field goals made per game (39.0).
– Timberwolves rank 1st in Q3 opponent points per game (25.1).
Prediction
While the Nuggets should be favored at home, where they are 37-10 this season, their inconsistent playoff performance and Murray’s elbow issue make them vulnerable. The Timberwolves have won 5 of the last 10 games against the Nuggets, including 3 in Denver. The value lies with the Timberwolves and the big plus money. Bet on the Timberwolves on spread and money-line bets.
With their strong defenses, I’m also taking the under 197.5 line on this game. Denver’s ability to limit opponents, even with Edward’s menacing skills, and Murray’s elbow being a bit banged up, makes this one an interesting choice. Unlike other playoff games, this won’t be a full-blown shootout.
